Martingale: Effective Money Management System or Not ...
Binary Options & Profitable Win Rate
Hello there /forex! I actually fired this question off in /math and was met with crickets there. My question has to do with the math behind a sub-martingale betting strategy for Binary Options. Here's what I was thinking... Basically I want to see if there is a mathematical way to compare two betting styles and the % win necessary to be profitable trading binary options. I am not quite sure even of how you would set this up mathematically to solve your expected break-even point, after tinkering in excel, I found the number to be somewhere close to a 58.7% win rate on straightforward betting (with a 70% payout). Here's where it gets more cumbersome. If you were to approach the problem with a martingale style betting system, (whereby you double up your bets with each consecutive loss) would it have any impact on the % break even win rate? Lets assume the max consecutive losses I am willing to make is 4, is it more likely that I will reach a point where I have won all the money back to exceed my max loss (4 losses in a row = $75 max draw vs. probability of winning enough bets to overcome $75) and is the win rate to get there less than that of straightforward betting? For an example...
B1: $5, net win payout:$3.5, max loss:$5
B2: $10, net win payout:$2, max loss:$15
B3: $20, net win payout:$4, max loss:$35
B4: $40, net win payout:$8, max loss:$75
So based on probability, what is the necessary win rate to have a sub martingale (winning bias over my max loss of $75)...and is it lower than the win rate of straightforward betting? Sorry for not having a clue on how to calculate this...hopefully this has perked some interest and someone is up for the challenge. Thanks and sorry for the poorly explained example, I can try to clarify what I mean if its unclear. TL:DR Does the necessary win rate to be profitable on a fixed payout system change with a martingale strategy?
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